Author Topic: North Korean Nuclear Test  (Read 1008 times)

Offline Joseph Hewitt

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« on: October 09, 2006, 03:33:50 PM »
I suppose you've heard by now that North Korea just tested a nuclear bomb. Everyone over here was a little bit nervous today, but we're waiting to see what's going to happen.

First when I arrived in Korea I'd get nervous at every little North Korean provocation. My friends and co-workers always told me to relax, it was just a little sea battle. I guess things are different when nuclear weapons are involved.

As for the global efforts to deal with this problem, I can't say that I'm optimistic. I can't imagine the current governments of the US, Japan, or Russia doing anything even vaguely useful here. It's pretty sad when my best hope of a sensible resolution lies with China. Sad, and maybe delusional. It's not that I have any bright ideas about how to solve this problem on my own, it's just that I know however bad the situation may seem now it could always be made worse.

Eunsuk is worried about what the NK nuclear test is going to do to our finances. If the tension continues for long, or if there's an armed confrontation, that's going to have a bad effect on the Korean economy. Unfortunately we just signed a contract to buy a house, and even though we talked about diversifying our savings all of our money is still stored in Korea. Trouble in the economy could devalue those savings and mean we'll pay far more on the house than its market value.

That's actually more worrying to me than the thought of war, mostly because I see it as more likely. I may change my mind on that if I end up writing my next response from a refugee camp in Koje-Do. Gonna be a hell of a toboggan ride.

Offline macksting

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2006, 05:44:59 PM »
Cripes. Good to know what this might mean from a more direct perspective.
As a Yankee, I happen to agree that at least our government isn't in a position to make change here. Sad, really; I blame the other 50% of voters. Or maybe 80%; the senate and house suck.

Offline Epsilon

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2006, 10:14:35 PM »
News of the North Korean nuclear test quite frankly scared me. I really loathe the idea of them having nuclear arms... and I loathe the idea more of the world not being able to do much about it. Asking them nicely to pretty please put away the nuclear missiles probably won't work; and it's not like you can invade them, there's a risk of an "accident". A nuclear one.

It's worrisome. But there's not a lot I can do about it...

Offline Joseph Hewitt

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2006, 09:30:12 AM »
Today, most people are far more relaxed about the North Korea thing... except for those who own houses, or are in contracts to buy houses. The real estate market just took a dip. Crap.

Oh well. Could be worse... I'm not going to worry about it any more than I have to.

Offline Aquillion

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2006, 04:50:42 AM »
The government here in the US is apparently expressing doubt that it was actually a nuke...  Which might sound like a good thing, but it's equally likely that it's just because the US government doesn't want to have to deal with the situation what with congressional elections in a few weeks here and all.

So, yeah, I wouldn't hold out for any helpful contributions from the United States.  Bizarrely, China probably is the best hope...  they're the only nation with any real influence in North Korea at all, and they don't particularly want things collapsing at their borders.

Offline macksting

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2006, 07:12:54 AM »
Do North Korea and China get along particularly?
Interesting that you're another yankee, Aquillion. It's a remarkably international populace what likes this game, so while I'd felt no loneliness, it calls into question the general assumption that other people on a given net are mostly American. :)

Offline Sabin Stargem

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2006, 08:45:25 AM »
Let's hope it stays international in nature.  Gods know that foreigners and their works have a lot to offer to many people, everywhere.

Offline macksting

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2006, 09:51:31 AM »
Yeah, you're right. It would sure suck if it stopped being international; then, it would only either be Canadian or Korean, and all us Yankers would have to miss out on our GearHead.

...what are we talking about again?
Oh yeah. Cripes, what to make of this nuklear test. Frankly, I just feel misinformed in general, which is why I'm appreciating the look from a different, more directly involved location. If my gummit weren't so god damn hawk happy right now, maybe I'd find this less distressing...

Offline Joseph Hewitt

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2006, 02:33:03 AM »
North Korea is paranoid. The general belief up north seems to be that the entire world is out to get them. The North Korean government is doubly paranoid, since it's not just the outside world but also their own citizens they have to be wary of.

This nuclear test may have been an effort to rally the population. After all, nothing unites a people so well as the boogeyman of hostile foreigners. That the United States has nuclear weapons of its own but is saying that NK can't have them is being touted as an insult to the NK people on NK TV.

It's interesting that both the NK TV snippets they show on the SK news, and the interviews with US commentators on CNN, have been using mostly the same talking points. There's a fear of foreign agression, our side is willing to negotiate but the other side is refusing, etc. Note that I'm not saying both sides are equally valid, I just find the rhetoric interesting.

China used to be NK's main (only?) trading partner and ally. In recent years China has been improving its relationship with South Korea, and the relationship with the North seems to have soured. This probably has something to do with NK's instability.

So, what to do about the problem? The US government has hinted several times that they want regieme change in NK... despite how terrible the North Korean government is, I'm not sure I can agree with that. Look at Iraq. If you remove the government without replacing it with something better, there's going to be chaos. Reunification with the South is simply impossible at this point in time; it would devestate the SK economy, and there may not be the political will to make it happen.

If North Korea collapses into anarchy, that's very bad news for both China and South Korea. The ideal solution would be for North Korea to modernize and liberalize from within, as has happened in many other communist/former communist countries. Unfortunately that's going to take time, and may not ever happen at all.

That's what I've gathered from Korean news sources. Any or all of the above may be misremembered or just plain wrong.

Offline macksting

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2006, 07:11:05 AM »
The CIA's files on Kim Jong Il indicate that he's not batshit by any stretch of the imagination, except for a case of general megalomaniacal sociopathism called Malign Narcissism. From the description of that condition, I'd estimate that it's nearly a prerequisite for attaining high political office in a human society, or propaganda work; Kim Jong Il has done both.
Likewise, another article I read spoke of the Pyongyang ambassador stating that the US, four days after signing an accord in which both N. Korea and the US promised concessions, immediately painted the entirety of N. Korea as a criminal state and sought significant damages against the nation which may well have been in violation of that accord. Writer of the article indicates that the ambassador was under the impression that this nuklear development was a last-ditch attempt to open dialogue.
This works nicely with the description of Kim Jong Il as being a largely sane, balanced, intelligent, machiavellian individual.

So yeah, the propaganda mills on both sides are running full bore from the sound of it, and I admit, I don't know quite what to believe. However, I find it's usually a good idea to assume the most selfish behaviour on the part of politicians, which usually means grandstanding and giving scads of money to friends, even at expense of their own future survival. If there's money for friends to be had in this, I would expect more of that.

Offline Joseph Hewitt

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2006, 03:41:42 PM »
Kim Jong Il definitely isn't crazy. I get the impression from certain people on internet that they think he's exactly like his character from "Team America: World Police".

Offline macksting

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2006, 06:30:47 PM »
Which was certainly amusing; I gotta admit, I had the song "I'm So Ronery" stuck in my head after reading the article.
However, I have a disconnect between the real Kim Jong Il and the one in that movie. The one in the movie doesn't worry me, whereas the real one concerns me as much as any megalomaniac does.

Offline Joseph Hewitt

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2006, 11:52:28 AM »
Today's comment on North Korea, from my student Sung-Min:

Sung-Min: (kind of sad) "Joe, I think you will go to Canada, because North Korea and America is fight, and South Korea is all die. (suddenly much happier) But today at picnic, I saw a Llama make dung!!! It's cool."

Offline macksting

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2006, 05:25:52 PM »
*gapes*
Ouch. Looks like S.Korea has about as much confidence in US foreign policy as, well, I do.
What does one say to that?

Offline Joseph Hewitt

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North Korean Nuclear Test
« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2006, 04:24:20 AM »
It's about the same as when I was a kid, and we were worried about nuclear annihilation coming from the Soviets... I don't know why the USSR would want to bomb rural Newfoundland; maybe because the Cormack Community Center marked all of its property with the initials "CCCP".

I told him that I'm not going to Canada, and that anyways North Korea can't kill everyone in South Korea with one bomb. Apparently one of his friends at school told him they could. Then his brother chimed in with the following thought: "But maybe they can kill all Seoul, Hooray! because Seoul students are smarter than us". That's Sung-mo... always looking for the bright side.